Clinician Capacity Planning Model
A mental health clinic wanted to align their marketing spend with clinician onboarding schedules. I built a forecasting model that maps new clinician capacity to patient demand to marketing budget needs, month-by-month across a full year.
When Headcount Doesn’t Equal Patient Demand
The clinic had clinician start dates scheduled out, but connecting those dates to patient intake goals wasn’t straightforward. How many new patients does a clinician who starts in March actually need by May? What happens when you factor in gradual schedule ramp-up, real show rates, and varying follow-up frequencies?
Existing planning approaches either simplified too much (basic headcount multipliers) or didn’t account for operational realities like no-shows and staggered onboarding. The goal was to build something that reflected how things actually work.
Building the Forecast Engine
Built system to track each clinician’s schedule development month-by-month:
- Real show rate data from current operations
- Intake vs follow-up session durations
- Patient attrition patterns
- Appointment spacing by treatment type
- Capacity targets (realistic vs fully utilized)
The model calculates how many new patient intakes are needed each month to maintain those schedules, then ties those numbers to cost-per-acquisition data to forecast marketing spend. Leadership can adjust assumptions such as improving show rates from 65% to 75% and see how budget needs change accordingly.
From Budget Guesses to Budget Math
Marketing planning now connects directly to clinician schedules. Instead of estimating broadly, the clinic can see specific intake targets and budget requirements by month. The model also helps with hiring decisions by showing when new clinician patient demand would outpace the ability to fill schedules.